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Nov 19, 2012
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republican lance gilman the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's storey county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution and gilman just game the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county xhish ler elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business success that i bring to the commission. it is kind of a hard issue to ignore. gilman by the way calls himself a dyed in the wool republican who loves american values. >>> finally, last week steve schmidt said on meet the press that a lot of swing voters think of the republican party as one of loons and wackos. mike murphy, another republican strategist just weighed in on "meet the press." here he is. >> this is an existential crisis for the republican party and we have to have a brutal discussion about it. we alienate young voters because of gay marriage, we alienate hispanics and we've lost our co
republican lance gilman the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's storey county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution and gilman just game the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county xhish ler elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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nevada senator-elect dean heller defeated addleson foe shelly berkeley, a democrat. forbes put it in perspective. $53 million may sound like a chuck of change, it's not much for a guy worth $20.5 billion. imagine an average person with $100,000 net worth, buying a pair of shoes for $250. you'd care if you lost them, but you wouldn't be ruined. finally one kentucky candidate learned the hard way that every vote counts. robert mcdonald finished in a dead heat with to livia bilou for time seat on the walton city council. one vote that was not cast would have put him over the top. only one vote would have done it. cincinnati inquirer reports that mcdonald's wife who works nights at hospital and finishing nursing training did not make it to the polls. so now his election will hinge on a coin flip. president obama didn't have to rely, of course, on con flip to get his second term but now he has some decisions to make. about who is going to be working with him over the next four years. correspondent shannon bream on the possibilities. >> that is something i'm in the process
nevada senator-elect dean heller defeated addleson foe shelly berkeley, a democrat. forbes put it in perspective. $53 million may sound like a chuck of change, it's not much for a guy worth $20.5 billion. imagine an average person with $100,000 net worth, buying a pair of shoes for $250. you'd care if you lost them, but you wouldn't be ruined. finally one kentucky candidate learned the hard way that every vote counts. robert mcdonald finished in a dead heat with to livia bilou for time seat on...
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he could get there with a combination of two small states in the west, nevada and colorado would put him at 272 so he has two distinct paths right now to 270 electoral votes, something that mitt romney does not have right now, matt dowd. >> absolutely true. he can lose ohio, virginia and florida and still win by carrying colorado and nevada and that's the situation. they've been in this situation for weeks and now unfolding tonight just as i say as if the obama campaign had said they thought it would. they said they thought it would unfold this way, preserve the midwest, still win ohio and the biggest county out still only 20% of this county is in, cuyahoga county, only 20% in, that's cleveland and that gave barack obama a margin of 300,000 votes in that one county and that county is still 80% out. >> donna brazile, let's talk about iowa a little bit because that is where we first saw the power of this barack obama ground game. >> i'll never forget that. january 3rd, clinton and by the way we haven't mentioned bill clinton tonight. when i look at this map tonight, pennsylvania, wisco
he could get there with a combination of two small states in the west, nevada and colorado would put him at 272 so he has two distinct paths right now to 270 electoral votes, something that mitt romney does not have right now, matt dowd. >> absolutely true. he can lose ohio, virginia and florida and still win by carrying colorado and nevada and that's the situation. they've been in this situation for weeks and now unfolding tonight just as i say as if the obama campaign had said they...
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Nov 5, 2012
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i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be spending a lot of good times. >> here it is. that's what we're missing here. new hampshire over to there. >> new hampshire. >> and then we have it. >> thank you so much, chuck. >> bye now. >> chuck and the magic map. up next, mayor antonio villaraigosa in florida today, and house majority leader eric cantor from virginia, live from democracy plaza only here on msnbc. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred rx plan p-d-p gives you a low national plan premium... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. colin powell: yes. when he took ove
i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be...
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Nov 5, 2012
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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...
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Nov 10, 2012
11/12
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missouri, and the last cycle they throw away a slam dunk republican seats in maryland, colorado, and nevada. so, the left and the right of the party and all of its wings made -- made mistakes in choosing candidates. romney was not a great candidate. he came out of the open primary process. it was the only one in the field to was remotely presidential and that is why he got the nomination. >> president obama to 71% of the hispanic vote. if you were taking a look at the republican party, would you not start with them, mark? >> i would. i would also start with the asian vote. republican party is increasingly an older, whiter, male party. the republican base is moving -- a larger percentage of voters under 29 turned out than those over 60. republican base is moving from its own home to the rest come to the funeral home. and the democratic base is moving from their room, maybe eventually to a home of their own. if they get a job of their own. that is the difference between the two parties. >> there was a statistic that was just incredible. if you look at the white vote from 10 years ago, it was
missouri, and the last cycle they throw away a slam dunk republican seats in maryland, colorado, and nevada. so, the left and the right of the party and all of its wings made -- made mistakes in choosing candidates. romney was not a great candidate. he came out of the open primary process. it was the only one in the field to was remotely presidential and that is why he got the nomination. >> president obama to 71% of the hispanic vote. if you were taking a look at the republican party,...
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Nov 2, 2012
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odd and interesting about this is the three states with the worst unemployment levels, california, nevada and new jersey are solidly democratic. the whole republican argument that this administration has made things worse clearly is not working in those states where things are, in fact, the worst. in other states like nebraska, kansas, north dakota where there's extremely low employment because of shale gas and agriculture, republicans are winning. it's an interesting dynamic in the election in that respect. the real challenge for any new administrati administration, whether it's president obama or governor romney, is we treat it as a national problem and we have huge varieties between states and education levels and gender. >> let's talk about the psyc psychology of it. are people looking at the numbers and measures how they feel? whatever the case, they're measures how they feel at their home right now. >> absolutely. it's a good media story to talk about the number that changes month to month. oh, my god the unemployment rate is 7.9%. do i have a job that pays enough? do i have several
odd and interesting about this is the three states with the worst unemployment levels, california, nevada and new jersey are solidly democratic. the whole republican argument that this administration has made things worse clearly is not working in those states where things are, in fact, the worst. in other states like nebraska, kansas, north dakota where there's extremely low employment because of shale gas and agriculture, republicans are winning. it's an interesting dynamic in the election in...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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nevada, definitely. the right in the country and especially the ultraconservatives in the republican party had pushed african-americans and hispanics together. they have a politics where sort of a nasty bragg adagio -- braggodacio, if you watch the primaries, where you have to be slashed and burned and how you attack your enemies, that gary masters not go over with -- a very much does not go over with hispanics. some of the things that were said -- i have spoken to a while now and latino pollster about this. -- well known latino pollster about this. he said a white person has friends and extended family that number family8. as hispanic person has that number at about 50. if you are a slash and burn person, that is your style, you are not going to go over well with latinos. african americans and latinos have been pushed together. if you look at it in class terms, african-americans, the largest proportion of african americans and latinos are working class and have similar interests in terms of government.
nevada, definitely. the right in the country and especially the ultraconservatives in the republican party had pushed african-americans and hispanics together. they have a politics where sort of a nasty bragg adagio -- braggodacio, if you watch the primaries, where you have to be slashed and burned and how you attack your enemies, that gary masters not go over with -- a very much does not go over with hispanics. some of the things that were said -- i have spoken to a while now and latino...
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Nov 22, 2012
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when you take a look at how it's been jerry-rigged, sharron angle in nevada, compromise unfortunately has been such a dirty word right now. in, in fact, you're a moderate republican you're a turncoat or rhino. we have to stop this and say if you are an arlen specter or rudman or scott brown, you are also welcome into the party. because you may be pro-choice, pro gay rights, whatever the case may be, you're welcome. to sit here in washington, d.c. around a table and a thing of scotch and determine who the republican nominee is going to be is absolutely ludicrous and ridiculous. we need to go back to the basics of letting the best person win the primary -- >> you are talking in circles. i'm trying to figure out why the region party tends to have had an unusual load of crazy people running to the point they disturb the image of the party. mourdock hurt romney. let's be honest here. akin hurt romney. sharron angle hurt the party and still hurts the party. i think people like michele bachmann still hurt the party. allen west hurts the people. these people are so far over i will argue they
when you take a look at how it's been jerry-rigged, sharron angle in nevada, compromise unfortunately has been such a dirty word right now. in, in fact, you're a moderate republican you're a turncoat or rhino. we have to stop this and say if you are an arlen specter or rudman or scott brown, you are also welcome into the party. because you may be pro-choice, pro gay rights, whatever the case may be, you're welcome. to sit here in washington, d.c. around a table and a thing of scotch and...
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one race where that may be is nevada. dean heller is facing democratic representative shelly berkeley. dan springer is live at the heller elects -- heller election headquarters in las vegas. what do we know at this hour? >> jaime, it is empty here because the republicans all wept home. went home. this was supposed to be a battle ground state. it didn't turn out that way. president obama carried nevada by over 6%. a lot of people split their vote today. we jus word that dean heller who is the republican who was running for the senate has won his race against shelly berkeley. this was his first try for the senate because he was the incumbent that was appointed when john enson had to resign in disgrace from a sex scandal. heller retains his seat. he wins his first election. this was not supposed to be as close as it was. it was only a point and a half separating the two, about 12,000 votes. but it was very close because as you just mentioned we saw a huge minority population, a huge young people vote here. hispanics came out
one race where that may be is nevada. dean heller is facing democratic representative shelly berkeley. dan springer is live at the heller elects -- heller election headquarters in las vegas. what do we know at this hour? >> jaime, it is empty here because the republicans all wept home. went home. this was supposed to be a battle ground state. it didn't turn out that way. president obama carried nevada by over 6%. a lot of people split their vote today. we jus word that dean heller who is...
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Nov 26, 2012
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nevada's dean heller was the only to win in a blue state in the 2012 cycle. he narrow will he won over shelly berkeley despite the president winning the state by six. they have a none of the above. susan collins was the only other senator on the list to face voters while president obama was on the ballot. she won her third it term in 2008. the other seven were all elected or re-elected in the big republican wave of 2010. could republicans take back some of that territory in 2014 is this joining me now political analyst and editor and publisher of the cook political report, charlie cook. charlie, we have a senate announcement today. this is happenstance. we planned this last week and we can talk about 2014 and jay rockefeller. >> at least shelly capito had the decency to wait until after thanksgiving. >> mike brown announced two weeks ago he was running in 2014. >> see, i wasn't paying attention then. >> fair enough. is this all chalked up to bad recruiting by the republicans, the success rate? >> i think what we've seen is two cycles in a row of very disappoi
nevada's dean heller was the only to win in a blue state in the 2012 cycle. he narrow will he won over shelly berkeley despite the president winning the state by six. they have a none of the above. susan collins was the only other senator on the list to face voters while president obama was on the ballot. she won her third it term in 2008. the other seven were all elected or re-elected in the big republican wave of 2010. could republicans take back some of that territory in 2014 is this joining...
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Nov 14, 2012
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then colorado, ohio, new hampshire, nevada. only wisconsin and florida, by the way, wisconsin, how about that, wisconsin and florida below the national average on whether government should do less. let's talk about health care. repeal some or all? 49% nationally. leave it or expand it 44%. there's a five-point difference on this and i want you to follow that in the swing states, if you will. as you can see colorado, iowa, ohio and florida all higher than the national average on the repeal, if you will, below, nevada, virginia, wisconsin. have virginia number might surprise some people. all -- look at wisconsin was the only state in the battleground states where the expanded actually -- or not only leave it alone or expanded actually was higher than the repeal some or all. wisconsin, which was ground zero during the whole role of government debate with the unions. finally, who should see tax hik hikes? everyone -- those making over $250,000 or everyone? that was 60% overall. it's something you've heard from the president. he bel
then colorado, ohio, new hampshire, nevada. only wisconsin and florida, by the way, wisconsin, how about that, wisconsin and florida below the national average on whether government should do less. let's talk about health care. repeal some or all? 49% nationally. leave it or expand it 44%. there's a five-point difference on this and i want you to follow that in the swing states, if you will. as you can see colorado, iowa, ohio and florida all higher than the national average on the repeal, if...
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. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force th
. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i...
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but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume, powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact tour tomorrow. we'll be right back. >> bill: what will happen in the presidential vote tomorrow. w
but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney...
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Nov 19, 2012
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i developed for communities of 2500 acres or larger, have done two of them in nevada. i have been a harley dealer, construction, built the headquarters for at&t, my 40 years of business life has been in community building and i must tell you in nevada our brothel life and those that are well run and operated really don't get that much. melissa: are all wrapped up in this petraeus scandal. sex makes everyone go haywire. your opponents did not try to make any negative ads related to it? >> in the state of nevada it is legal, everybody on the outside of the state looks at the legal side of the industry. but in the state of nevada in story county and only in counties where it is legal, so no ma'am read i. it is not an inflamed issue. melissa: it is hard for us to imagine somebody electing somebody who ran a production company or something. even though that is a legal industry as well. oh ticket and get attention. what is the number one thing you will do know that you are in office? >> it has the second-largest tourist center in virginia city. for mark twain came from. we a
i developed for communities of 2500 acres or larger, have done two of them in nevada. i have been a harley dealer, construction, built the headquarters for at&t, my 40 years of business life has been in community building and i must tell you in nevada our brothel life and those that are well run and operated really don't get that much. melissa: are all wrapped up in this petraeus scandal. sex makes everyone go haywire. your opponents did not try to make any negative ads related to it?...
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places like nevada a little bit in northern virginia, florida. i think one of the big stories when this is all over is going to be that demographic story, how much this country's changed in the last four years. and if romney loses, i think a big debate in the republican party is going to be over how they win the white house again, given their -- up until now anyway, their troubles with the hispanic community. i think romney's numbers among hispanics and other minorities are going to be a big story after election day. >> if romney loses, they will look at the recriminations -- >> if he loses. >> what would be the debate in the democratic party if the president of the united states were to lose? >> when either side loses, liberals say the democrat wasn't liberal enough. conservatives always say he wasn't conservative enough. i think a lot of democrats would say, one, that obama missed his opportunity in 2009, wasn't aggressive enough on the economy, shouldn't have pursued health care. i don't know if that's the correct analysis. but a lot of people
places like nevada a little bit in northern virginia, florida. i think one of the big stories when this is all over is going to be that demographic story, how much this country's changed in the last four years. and if romney loses, i think a big debate in the republican party is going to be over how they win the white house again, given their -- up until now anyway, their troubles with the hispanic community. i think romney's numbers among hispanics and other minorities are going to be a big...
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Nov 9, 2012
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florida, virginia, iowa, nevada, ohio what i put him over the top. he did not get anywhere near the progression. there are a lot of things going pondweeds, but the most important thing is that republicans is that they need to do something about their brand. it is basically the center of the republican party is older, white men. that is not where this country is going. when you look at african- americans, latinos, the fastest-growing group, asian. and the obama got 71% or 72% of the asian vote. the future does not look like the republican party. if i were the republican party, they will have to do some real soul-searching about immigration, social and cultural issues, because this is not a party design for the future. if this were a business, you would say they have an inherently flawed business model for the future. the republican party, they have four years they need because they are coming out for some candidates that are awfully exotic. [laughter] my wife got me to stop using the term "wacko." not only do they take themselves down, but they define
florida, virginia, iowa, nevada, ohio what i put him over the top. he did not get anywhere near the progression. there are a lot of things going pondweeds, but the most important thing is that republicans is that they need to do something about their brand. it is basically the center of the republican party is older, white men. that is not where this country is going. when you look at african- americans, latinos, the fastest-growing group, asian. and the obama got 71% or 72% of the asian vote....
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he could also get nevada or iowa. that's one, two, three, four, five, six states he would have to win if he loses ohio. >> how many of those six states is he behind today according to the poll? >> well, of course he's -- it's tied in virginia. he's behind in wisconsin. tied in new hampshire. he's ahead in north carolina. nevada and iowa, which would be crucial to that last piece, tied in colorado. >> which is why the governor is going to ohio today. he's going to northern ohio, cleveland, and then he's going to western pennsylvania, which is covered in southern ohio. so the pennsylvania visit is not so much about pennsylvania. it is a little bit about it, but it's about getting both media markets at the top and bottom of ohio. >> how common is it to campaign on election day and how effective is it? >> remember al gore in 2000. al gore went all around this country campaigning at the very last minute. george w. bush took that day off and the day before largely off. al gore's late surge made that a very close election, a
he could also get nevada or iowa. that's one, two, three, four, five, six states he would have to win if he loses ohio. >> how many of those six states is he behind today according to the poll? >> well, of course he's -- it's tied in virginia. he's behind in wisconsin. tied in new hampshire. he's ahead in north carolina. nevada and iowa, which would be crucial to that last piece, tied in colorado. >> which is why the governor is going to ohio today. he's going to northern...
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i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big numbers and it's been really hard to tell where they're at, because they haven't been very vocal, but if they turn out in big numbers, i think mitt romney could get the state. i don't expect him to. >> i would expect him to turn out in big n
i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that...
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nevada used to be a swing state. 71% again in the state of nevada. one of the key battlegrounds. let me give you one more example. colorado. once a red state, now a purple state. latino vote, double digits and 75%. 75%. let's look over here. president wins nevada. once a swing state. wins colorado. wins new mexico. this used to be one of the classic swing states in american politics. don't even think about it anymore, right? and he's probably going to win florida. why do i circle those? i'm going to slide this little barrier. the darker the colors, the higher the latino population. nevada, colorado, new mexico, florida, you can find other places as well up into the midwest. the republicans don't solve this problem. this is a crisis for the republican party. >> it certainly is. we're going to talk more about texas in a bit because i see that orange there. what about women? i know this war on women fight, a lot of people wondered whether it would be effective, but when it actually happened -- >> in a word, yes. >> romney did not make up that gap again. >> play the exit polls. natio
nevada used to be a swing state. 71% again in the state of nevada. one of the key battlegrounds. let me give you one more example. colorado. once a red state, now a purple state. latino vote, double digits and 75%. 75%. let's look over here. president wins nevada. once a swing state. wins colorado. wins new mexico. this used to be one of the classic swing states in american politics. don't even think about it anymore, right? and he's probably going to win florida. why do i circle those? i'm...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic approach. we are democrats. we are going to stand up for what's right and stand up for a country that is more inclusive and more respectful of everybody. >> congressman luis gutierrez, good to have you on "the ed show" tonight. >>> republicans think a night at the movies might get them set straight on some of the issues they are facing. i will show you how they have done this in the past. stay tuned. someone happy ♪ when you give a child a toy, it has to work. ♪ make just one someone happy and when it's a toys for tots child, well, what
in new mexico and in nevada and florida. he saw a community come forward and embrace him in his position, number one. plus, this president knows, it is the right thing to do. it is the right thing to do, to allow people to come out of the shadows. as democrats, we are going to allow everyone. one of our principles today that we made sure of. when we look at family, we look at same-sex marriage families as families too. we see those partnerships as valuable partnerships. we want a holistic...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is at 46, the challenger is probably in a better position, most of the time. however, we're making new mathematical history in these campaigns all the time. and you can see that argument, because it's an old argument. it's been around a while. it didn't work for john kerry and it's hard to say what's going to happen now. >> yeah. i spent over a year working seven days a week for john kerry so i'm familiar with that argument, i remember that argument. i think the critical question then as now is whether the challenger is viewed to be credible by election day. if you look at polling of a generic republican ver
if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just today, so give him wisconsin, iowa, and the state of ohio, he's at 237. so on the remaining map here you see these strategies in the final moments now and where they pick and where they go and the reasons why. say the president were to pick pennsylvania, he's at 255. and so now at this moment based on this scenario and all the polling we have seen maybe he takes michigan. that would be enough to get him to 271. >> this shows the centrality of ohio. i don't think he's going to carry ohio. i've been food link on th7,000 democ
>> wisconsin or nevada. i know that nevada is going to be very close, the democrats have got even about the base number that they need for a lead in early voting, but republican enthusiasm as am in the cow counties is high. it's going to be a narrow victory for either side. i think the most likely is nevada and wisconsin. bill: what is the likely scenario for the president? he's going to three different states today. he's at 201, okay. so if he were to go to wisconsin, ohio, and iowa just...